ThirdYear Capital

ThirdYear Capital is an independent provider of ‘quantamental’ macro strategy and absolute return

About us

ThirdYear Capital is an independent provider of ‘quantamental’ macro strategy and absolute returns. The team combines rich global macro research and investment experience at a leading alternative asset manager with academic rigor and vetting.

‘Quantamental’ is a combination of quantitative and fundamental. In ThirdYear Capital’s specific approach, the strategy uses data and technology to systematically apply a deep understanding of the economy to liquid asset classes in real time. The company was founded in 2015 starting with strategy development and publication of economic analysis. Systematic application of the strategy has been constantly optimized and a long history in fundamental macro research has been established.

The firm is fund advisor of the ART Global Macro UCITS (ISIN: DE000A2P0U66). Further information on the fund can be found on the website of our distribution partner Agathon Capital.

Our fund partners support with their expertise.

Asset classes

Economies

Nowcasts and stock portfolios

Time series

Investment strategy

The strategy uses short-term forecasts (so-called ‘nowcasts’) of economic activity for more than 20 economies to identify historically tested cause-and-effect relationships in real time and to anticipate their impact on financial markets. Asset classes include equities, bonds, inflation markets and currencies.

‘Quantamental’ investing enables the strategy to benefit not only from fundamental trends, e.g. during an economic upswing, but also from turning points. The strategy regularly identifies countercyclical opportunities, e.g. in an early recession, and deliberately avoids factors and technical trend signals. A further added value lies in the broad real-time application of the system across different countries and asset classes.

The investment objectives include differentiated returns that are as independent of the market as possible and a competitive Sharpe ratio.

Controlled Risk and Volatility

VaR, stress tests, tight exposure control, internal and external oversight

Balanced Portfolio

Limited exposure to growth, inflation, interest rate level

Liquid and Scalable

High-capacity strategy in liquid and exchange-traded markets

ESG

ThirdYear GmbH is a contractually bound agent of BN & Partners Capital AG according to section 3 (2) German Wertpapierinstitutsgesetz (WpIG). The mandatory disclosures according to the EU Disclosure Regulation of BN & Partners Capital AG as investment firm/financial advisor can be found at https://www.bnpartner.com/esg.html.

clientrelations@third-year.com

+49 (89) 458 353 69

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The name 'ThirdYear Capital'

The name ‘ThirdYear Capital’ refers to a market anomaly called ‘presidential cycle pattern’.

While the strategy does not trade any seasonal effects, because they are too weak, TYC’s research confirms that markets are driven by politics to a significant extent.

The presidential cycle pattern is a representation of the stock market’s average performance over each four-year period from presidential election to election.

Historically, most of the positive performance in stock markets has been realized in the third year, when politics typically allows for increased stimulation. Real conditions like employment then tend to respond with a time lag and just in time for the new election in the fourth year.