{"id":2310,"date":"2025-08-11T15:27:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T15:27:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/third-year.com\/?page_id=2310"},"modified":"2025-08-11T15:27:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T15:27:40","slug":"tyc-3","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/en\/tyc-3\/","title":{"rendered":"ThirdYear Capital &#8212; version before 21\/08\/19 &#8211; english"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row full_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; content_placement=&#8221;middle&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;yes&#8221; bg_type=&#8221;bg_image&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; image_url=&#8221;1649&#8243;][vc_column css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1497012008307{padding-top: 500px !important;padding-bottom: 500px !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix\"><h3 style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"modern aligncenter\">ThirdYear Capital is a provider of global macro strategy, focusing on systematic and countercyclical investing<span style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"bottom-line\"><\/span><\/h3><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row content_placement=&#8221;middle&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; section_id=&#8221;About&#8221; section_title=&#8221;About us&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1456333027843{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:5px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix\"><h2 style=\"color:#000000!important;border-color:#000000\" class=\"\">About us<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:25px;\"><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">ThirdYear Capital is an independent and specialized provider of macro strategy\/portfolios. TYC offers three products\/services: i) research, ii) advisory, and iii) a concept for strategy implementation. The leadership team has experience at leading alternative asset managers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The investment approach is based on <strong>systematic and countercyclical<\/strong> investing in <strong>liquid asset classes<\/strong>. TYC has an established research and performance\u00a0<strong>track record<\/strong>. Since inception, the annualized return target of 10-15% has consistently been achieved with a volatility below 10%. Positive performance has come from long and short positions across all asset classes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> Institutional clients like fund managers, family offices and pension funds use the strategy as an independent input to their investment process and to get access to an attractive absolute return profile.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1456333038116{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:75px;\"><\/div><\/div>[vc_single_image image=&#8221;2230&#8243; img_size=&#8221;medium&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1456333027843{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:4px;\"><\/div><\/div><a href=\"#Contact\" class=\"hb-button hb-default hb-small-button no-three-d hb-animate-element hb-flip-y hb-push-button\" target=\"_self\" style=\"-webkit-border-radius: 2px;-moz-border-radius: 2px;border-radius: 2px;\"><span class=\"hb-push-button-text\">Request a sample research report<\/span><\/a>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_column_text]Reports can be accessed through entitlements via\u00a0TYC&#8217;s research partners:[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1881&#8243; img_size=&#8221;320&#215;80&#8243; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;2129&#8243; img_size=&#8221;450&#215;87&#8243; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row fullwidth=&#8221;yes&#8221; bg_type=&#8221;bg_image&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1448292120780{border-top-width: 0px !important;border-right-width: 0px !important;border-bottom-width: -40px !important;padding-top: 100px !important;padding-right: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 100px !important;}&#8221; image_url=&#8221;1580&#8243;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-milestone-counter clearfix\"><div class=\"hb-counter\"><div class=\"count-number\" data-from=\"0\" data-to=\"5\" data-speed=\"1000\"><\/div><div class=\"count-separator\"><span><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"count-subject\">Asset classes<\/h3><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-milestone-counter clearfix\"><div class=\"hb-counter\"><div class=\"count-number\" data-from=\"0\" data-to=\"21\" data-speed=\"700\"><\/div><div class=\"count-separator\"><span><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"count-subject\">Economies<\/h3><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1448271466456{padding-top: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-milestone-counter clearfix\"><div class=\"hb-counter\"><div class=\"count-number\" data-from=\"0\" data-to=\"300\" data-speed=\"1000\"><\/div><div class=\"count-separator\"><span><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"count-subject\">Nowcasts and stock portfolios<\/h3><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-milestone-counter clearfix\"><div class=\"hb-counter\"><div class=\"count-number\" data-from=\"0\" data-to=\"5000\" data-speed=\"1000\"><\/div><div class=\"count-separator\"><span><\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"count-subject\">Time series<\/h3><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; section_id=&#8221;Investment&#8221; section_title=&#8221;Investment strategy&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1497000033251{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1448275035746{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix\"><h2 style=\"color:#000000!important;border-color:#000000\" class=\"\">Investment strategy<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:25px;\"><\/div><\/div>[vc_column_text]\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #49575d;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">TYC\u2019s investment strategy is based on the research-backed assumption that the financial system is inherently procyclical, which results in institutional herding. TYC applies a countercyclical approach and identifies a great amount of value in extending it to multiple asset classes and countries. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #49575d;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">By now, countercyclical investing has also been researched and recommended by the IMF. TYC\u2019s implementation uses nowcasting which has become popular with major central banks like the Fed and ECB. Nowcasting identifies the cycle phase, which allows for a forward-looking asset allocation. The underlying <strong>fundamental cause-and-effect relationships<\/strong> hold true across hundreds of historical economic cycles, importantly credit cycles.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #49575d;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Since inception, the strategy has generated consistent returns across the major liquid asset classes.<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:118px;\"><\/div><\/div>[vc_single_image image=&#8221;2186&#8243; img_size=&#8221;large&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:40px;\"><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1456333027843{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-icon-box clearfix\"><div class=\"content-box top-icon\"><i class=\"icon-ok box-icon\"><\/i><div class=\"aligncenter\">\n<h6><strong>Limited Risk and Volatility<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>VaR, stress tests, UCITS compliant, tight exposure control<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-icon-box clearfix\"><div class=\"content-box top-icon\"><i class=\"icon-ok box-icon\"><\/i><div class=\"aligncenter\">\n<h6><b>Balanced Portfolio<\/b><\/h6>\n<p>Limited exposure to growth, inflation, discount rate<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/3&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-icon-box clearfix\"><div class=\"content-box top-icon\"><i class=\"icon-ok box-icon\"><\/i><div class=\"aligncenter\">\n<h6><b>Liquid and Scalable<\/b><\/h6>\n<p>High-capacity strategy in liquid and exchange-traded markets<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row fullwidth=&#8221;yes&#8221; bg_type=&#8221;bg_video&#8221; video_texture=&#8221;yes&#8221; fw_columns=&#8221;yes&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; video_mp4=&#8221;http:\/\/hb-themes.com\/demo-files\/skylapse.mp4&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1497022994779{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}&#8221; section_id=&#8221;Contact_us&#8221; section_title=&#8221;Contact us&#8221;][vc_column css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1448124298486{margin-bottom: -20px !important;padding-top: 200px !important;padding-bottom: 200px !important;background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.5) !important;*background-color: rgb(0,0,0) !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix hb-animate-element hb-flip-x\"><h3 style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"modern aligncenter\">ThirdYear Capital<span style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"bottom-line\"><\/span><\/h3><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix hb-animate-element hb-flip-x\"><h5 style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"modern aligncenter\">clientrelations@third-year.com<span style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"bottom-line\"><\/span><\/h5><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix hb-animate-element hb-flip-x\"><h5 style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"modern aligncenter\">+49 (89) 309 040 232<span style=\"color:#ffffff!important;border-color:#ffffff\" class=\"bottom-line\"><\/span><\/h5><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; section_id=&#8221;Contact&#8221; section_title=&#8221;Contact form&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1496999956336{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1448275035746{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:10px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-title clearfix\"><h2 style=\"color:#000000!important;border-color:#000000\" class=\"\">Contact form<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:25px;\"><\/div><\/div><div role=\"form\" class=\"wpcf7\" id=\"wpcf7-f1927-o1\" lang=\"en-US\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<div class=\"screen-reader-response\"><\/div>\n<form action=\"\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2310#wpcf7-f1927-o1\" method=\"post\" class=\"wpcf7-form\" novalidate=\"novalidate\">\n<div style=\"display: none;\">\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wpcf7\" value=\"1927\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wpcf7_version\" value=\"5.1.4\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wpcf7_locale\" value=\"en_US\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wpcf7_unit_tag\" value=\"wpcf7-f1927-o1\" \/>\n<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"_wpcf7_container_post\" value=\"0\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>Name* <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap your-name\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"your-name\" value=\"\" size=\"40\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required\" aria-required=\"true\" aria-invalid=\"false\" \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>Organization* <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap your-organization\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"your-organization\" value=\"\" size=\"40\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required\" aria-required=\"true\" aria-invalid=\"false\" \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>Position* <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap your-position\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"your-position\" value=\"\" size=\"40\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required\" aria-required=\"true\" aria-invalid=\"false\" \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>E-mail* <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap your-email\"><input type=\"email\" name=\"your-email\" value=\"\" size=\"40\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-email wpcf7-validates-as-required wpcf7-validates-as-email\" aria-required=\"true\" aria-invalid=\"false\" \/><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>Phone* <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap your-phone\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"your-phone\" value=\"\" size=\"40\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required\" aria-required=\"true\" aria-invalid=\"false\" \/><\/span> <\/p<\/p>\n<p>Message <br \/>\n    <span class=\"wpcf7-form-control-wrap Message\"><textarea name=\"Message\" cols=\"40\" rows=\"10\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-textarea\" aria-invalid=\"false\"><\/textarea><\/span> <\/p<\/p>\n<p>* Mandatory fields  <\/p>\n<p><input type=\"submit\" value=\"Submit\" class=\"wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-submit\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"wpcf7-response-output wpcf7-display-none\"><\/div><\/form><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:50px;\"><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243;]<div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:45px;\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"shortcode-wrapper shortcode-spacer clearfix\"><div class=\"spacer\" style=\"height:70px;\"><\/div><\/div>[vc_cta h2=&#8221;The name &#8216;ThirdYear Capital'&#8221; add_icon=&#8221;top&#8221; i_type=&#8221;entypo&#8221; i_icon_entypo=&#8221;entypo-icon entypo-icon-info&#8221; i_color=&#8221;black&#8221; i_background_style=&#8221;rounded-outline&#8221; i_background_color=&#8221;black&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1499096942133{background-color: #8cd2ff !important;}&#8221; i_on_border=&#8221;true&#8221;]\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The name &#8216;ThirdYear Capital&#8217; refers to a market anomaly called &#8216;presidential cycle pattern&#8217;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">While the strategy does not trade any seasonal effects, because they are too weak, TYC&#8217;s research confirms that markets are driven by politics to a significant extent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The presidential cycle pattern is a representation of the stock market&#8217;s average performance over each four-year period from presidential election to election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Historically, most of the positive performance in stock markets has been realized in the third year, when politics typically allows for increased stimulation. Real conditions like employment then tend to respond with a time lag and just in time for the new election in the fourth year.<\/span><\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row full_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; content_placement=&#8221;middle&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;yes&#8221; bg_type=&#8221;bg_image&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; image_url=&#8221;1649&#8243;][vc_column css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1497012008307{padding-top: 500px !important;padding-bottom: 500px !important;}&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row content_placement=&#8221;middle&#8221; top_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; bottom_margin=&#8221;0&#8243; section_id=&#8221;About&#8221; section_title=&#8221;About us&#8221;][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1456333027843{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_text] ThirdYear Capital is an independent and specialized provider of macro strategy\/portfolios. TYC offers three products\/services: i) research, ii) advisory, and iii) a concept for strategy implementation. The leadership team has experience [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2310"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2310"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2515,"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2310\/revisions\/2515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/third-year.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}